Capturing Geological Model Uncertainties to Improve De-risking
"What we know is a drop, what we don’t know is an ocean" ... this quotation from Isaac Newton aptly illustrates geologists’ knowledge of the subsurface. All reservoir understanding is derived from indirect measurements: models and concepts are largely used to obtain a possible representation of the subsurface and forecast field behavior. As a result, uncertainty is everywhere, and one of the main challenges is to propagate the uncertainty across disciplines and perform an integrated uncertainty study.
Paradigm proposes a systematic workflow that integrates all uncertainties, from time-depth conversion and interpretation bias to reservoir properties and simulation parameters. SKUA-GOCAD's unique modeling approach, based on the patented UVT Transform®
, enables stochastic simulation of all faults, horizons and fluid contacts, and automatically updates the 3D geological model accordingly while preserving its geological integrity. Uncertainties related to the structure are combined with petrophysical uncertainties to quantify their mutual and distinct impacts on reservoir recoverable volumes, connectivity and production forecasts.
But that is not all. The direct link between SKUA-GOCAD™ and flow simulators also enables the integration of dynamic uncertainties and the automatic launch of simulations from the modeling platform. The resulting production data can be analyzed and compared with production history to help identify a prehistorically matched model that respects input data and geological knowledge, regardless the geological complexity.