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The Impact of Uncertainties in Velocity Modeling on Production Forecast

May 07, 2019
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Presented by:  Andrey Klimushin, Team Lead
Domain:  Production Management
Product: GeoDepth™, SKUA-GOCAD™, RMS™, Tempest



The O&G industry faces two major challenges related to subsurface modeling workflows. The first is geologic risk assessment – the industry requires enhanced solutions for quantifying geologic risk as it moves into more complex tectonic settings and more (economically) marginal prospects. The second challenge is productivity – the industry requires solutions that allow domain experts to quickly integrate and share knowledge across the prospect lifecycle.

In this presentation, we describe a unique approach to subsurface interpretation and modeling, that shows how the addressed uncertainties impact future production estimates. We focus on the development and quantification of velocity uncertainty, associate with it seismic interpretation, and integrate it into subsurface modeling workflows. With uncertainty collected at the important stage of time-to-depth conversion, the interpretation becomes not a single configuration, but a means of generating an ensemble of reservoir models that can be used to reduce risk and improve decision making. 

This presentation features a tomographic approach for assessing and quantifying the impact of velocity errors (perturbations) on subsurface structural errors, which leads to the generation of multiple 3D grids. For each of these grids a geomodel can be constructed with further simulation and production forecast. The measured impact of key uncertainties on production is used to manage project risks and follow the optimal development or reservoir management strategy. 

We will demonstrate powerful and automated workflows that integrate tomography, static and dynamic modeling with production prediction solutions. 


Andrey_Limushin_sm.jpgAndrey Klimushin has over fourteen years of experience in subsurface modeling, business development and project execution.  He spent eight years working in Moscow in geological modeling and subsurface studies for national (CGE, Gazprom-neft) and international companies (AGR petroleum, Roxar). He joined Emerson in 2008 and has since taken on projects with increasing levels of responsibility.

He spent several years as a project team leader and consultant for Emerson Mexico.  There he helped the Mexican national oil and gas company PEMEX to increase production in one of the biggest offshore fields in the world.  He then relocated to join the Emerson team in Houston.

Andrey has experience in leading geomodeling applications, unique project delivery, and cross-disciplinary upstream technologies, including the digital oil field approach.  He has also been involved in business and marketing development on the software side.

Andrey is a native of Moscow, Russia. He graduated from the Gubkin Russian State University of Oil and Gas with a Master’s Degree in Reservoir and Petroleum Geology.